Patrick M. Crowley, Ph.D.

(Mostly) Recent Working Papers (all readable in pdf format)

Papers using both wavelet analysis and HHT/EMD

“Long cycles in growth: explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data”, paper analysing growth cycles in US real GNP using spectral, wavelet, and HHT/EMD methods.

Papers using HHT/EMD

“How Do You Make A Time Series Sing Like a Choir? Using the Hilbert-Huang Transform to Extract Embedded Frequencies from Economic or Financial Time Series”. Background paper introducing the HHT/EMD with applications to economic and financial time series. November 2009.

“An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform”. Revised version of paper presented at CIRET conference in Santiago, Chile, October 2008. Looks at frequency content of economic variables and indicators/sentiment indices.  With Tony Schildt (Bank of Finland). November 2009.

Papers using wavelet analysis

“Assessing the exchange rate exposure of US multinationals”, with Amir Habibdoust, Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 34/2013.

“Is Europe growing together or growing apart?” with Enrique Garcia and Chee Heong Quah, Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 33/2013.

"The great moderation under the microscope: decomposition of macroeconomic cycles in US and UK
aggregate demand"
, with Andrew Hughes Hallett (George Mason University). May 2011.

"Analysing Productivity Cycles in the Euro Area, US and UK Using Wavelet Analysis", with Douglas Maraun (University of Potsdam) and David Mayes (Bank of Finland).  Paper version presented at the EABCN/CEPR workshop in Helsinki, Nov. 2005. 

"How hard is the euro area core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis", with Douglas Maraun (University of Potsdam) and David Mayes (Bank of Finland).  Revised version, May 2006.  Bank of Finland discussion paper 18-06, July 2006.

"Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the eurozone", with Jim Lee, Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 12-05, October 2005.  Paper now divided into 2 parts: first using "static" wavelet analysis, and the second part combining wavelet analysis with dynamic conditional correlation analysis.  Both have been submitted to journals (but are available from the author upon request.

"An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists", Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 1-05, March 2005.  Forthcoming in revised (extended and corrected) form in Journal of Economic Surveys.

Papers on ECB monetary policy

"Do All Fit One Size? An Evaluation of the ECB Policy Response to Changing Economic Conditions in Euro Area Member States" with Jim Lee.  ACES Cases 2008/1.  Will appear (enhanced and extended) as a Bank of Finland Discussion Paper in 2009 under a different title.

Papers on the SGP

"The future of the SGP and some lessons for other monetary unions", with Robin Rowley.  June 2006.  Submitted to a political economy journal.

"The Stability and Growth Pact: Bad Economics and/or the Politics of Least Resistance?", Paper version presented in Austin, TX at the EUSA meetings in March 2005.  (STILL) UNDER REVISION.

Papers using cluster analysis

"Does the Comovement of Cycles in the EU suggestan OCA?"  Paper presented at Wilfrid Laurier University, April 2006.  Paper is under (heavy) revision so presentation only currently available.

"Is the US an OCA?".  Paper originally presented in Tampa, FL in Nov 2001 (SEA meetings).  Never revised, but nice results!

Other research papers

"Shocks and the Co-movement between Output and Prices" (with Jim Lee)

"The Co-movement between Output and Prices: Evidence from Canada" (with Jim Lee)

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     Please do not quote any of the above papers, without permission of the author(s)